Besides being a great volunteer and organizer, Phil Busey is a diligent analyst of election data. Here’s what he sent out to his email list (re-posted by permission)
What happened in last week’s election
Below are major points from my analysis and interpretation of the 11/4/2014 General Election in Broward County as to the Governor’s election. There were other interesting races on the ballot that I have not covered. Please be aware of cautionary statements in the full report. Also, there remains a discrepancy in the reported vote counts between the Florida Division of Elections and the Broward County Supervisor of Elections. The SOE has been contacted but has not responded.
If you received earlier drafts of my full report, it has been updated here and earlier versions should be ignored. The full report is here:
Not included in the report is some modeling that I performed (which will be continued when full voter histories are available) showing that the best model for voting is that “Independent” (no party affiliation and minor party) voters voted for Charlie Crist 69% of time, voted for minor party candidates 8% of the time, and voted for Republicans 23% of the time. Republicans and Democrats voted for the candidate of their own party almost exclusively, however about 5% of Republicans appeared to have voted for a minor party candidate, based on the least chi-squares model.
- In 2014, Democratic nominee for Governor lost to Republican incumbent Rick Scott by 64, 267 votes.
- Broward County votes for Charlie Crist were 318,903 a margin of 180,524 over Rick Scott, but not enough to negate large Rick Scott margins across Florida particularly in Lee and Collier Counties.
- Broward turnout of “active” voters was 44.47% (all parties), within historical norms since 2002. Broward turnout rose from being second worst in the state in 2010 to sixth worst in 2014.
- Broward margin for Charlie Crist was substantially larger than other Gubernatorial elections since 2002. Going along with increasing Democratic margins in Broward there has been a trend of shrinking margins at the state level for Republican candidates, however that is obscured by various factors such as the incumbency effect.
- There was an 17.4% increase or 47,297 more votes (47,257 based on SOE data) in Broward votes for Democrat Charlie Crist compared with Alex Sink in 2010. Of this, 12,822 or 27.1% of the increase was due to three cities, Lauderhill, Miramar, and Hollywood. The largest increases as a ratio of 2010 for incorporated areas were Lauderhill, 45.4% and Dania Beach, 36.9%. Of the 49,363 increased Broward margin (49,367 by SOE data) of Charlie Crist over Rick Scott, compared with Alex Sink over Rick Scott, Lauderhill, Miramar, and Hollywood again explained, in the same order, most of the positive performance, 12,378 votes or 25.1% of the County.
- Oakland Park and Wilton Manors, which were ranked in fourth and fifth place, respectively, in increase in Democratic margins, also were ranked in first and second place in return rate of absentee ballots (including absentee ballot requesters who voted early).