Early Voting So Far

As of sunrise Monday morning, 5.1 million Floridians — 38.7% of all elegible Florida voters — had cast a ballot in these midterm elections.  I wrote a small computer program to match each voter who cast a ballot with the races that voter could vote in.  The results suggest that we Democrats will flip three and possibly five Congressional seats blue and take razor thin control of the Florida Senate and the Florida House.  Here are the turnout numbers as of Monday morning.  

RepDemotherNo PartyTotal
Voted Vote-by-Mail1,001,727938,79813,898446,3892,400,812
Voted early in person1,047,4541,135,13819,569504,8652,709,268
Total Florida ballots cast
(as of sunrise
Sunday morning)
Unreturned Vote-by-Mail350,599462,0827,641267,1811,087,503

These numbers come from https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

43.96% of all eligible Republican voters have already voted.
42.17% of all eligible Democratic voters have already voted.
27% of all eligible independent and third party voters have already voted.

If we match the voter registration information of the people who have voted so far with the various Florida races, we get an interesting picture of the midterms.  There are limits to what this will tell you. 

  • These numbers only include in person early votes. I do not have the vote by mail data.
  • We have no way to know how anybody actually voted. We just know that a voter who cast a ballot was eligible to vote in certain races and registered as a Democrat or a Republican or something else.
  • We have no way to know if a voter actually voted for every race on his or her ballot. If somebody voted for governor, but not senator, we cannot detect that.
  • We have no clue about how independents might have voted.
  • These numbers do not predict how people who vote on Election Day will vote.

That having been said, if the election had ended Sunday night and only in person early voting counted, three Congressional seats, the 15th, the 26th and the 27th, would have flipped to a Democrat. There would be 22 Democrats (out of 40 State Senators) in Tallahassee and there would be 62 Democrats (out of 120 representatives) in the lower house of the Florida legislature. If we can get turnout on election day itself, there could be a pretty spectacular turn around in the third biggest state in the Union.

There are a lot of very close races throughout Florida.  Some might surprise you.  Also, notice the importance of third party and independent voters in each race.

The in person early voting numbers suggest that the 3rd, the 7th, the 13th, the 15th, the 18th, the 26th and the 27th Congressional Districts all appear close.

3rd Congressional District 105,155 voters. (R +9)
42,284 Democrats,  47,585 Republicans,  15,592 others

7th Congressional District 122,239 voters. (Cook rated even)
50,885 Democrats,  43,003 Republicans,  28,351 others

13th Congressional District 40,065 voters. (D +2) 
18,994 Democrats,  12,266 Republicans,  8,805 others

15th Congressional District 85,583 voters. (R +6) possible Dem flip
35,864 Democrats,  33,296 Republicans,  16,423 others

18th Congressional District 105,850 voters. (R +5) possible Dem flip
40,112 Democrats, 44,004 Republicans, 21,734 others

26th Congressional District 85,781 voters. (D +6) probable Dem flip
35,235 Democrats, 29,304 Republicans, 21,242 others

27th Congressional District 96,426 voters. (D +5) probable Dem flip
39,364 Democrats, 32,689 Republicans, 24,373 others

More Democrats than Republicans have cast a ballot in 22 Florida Senate races.  Ten of those races appear close close.  More Democrats than Republicans have cast ballots in 6 of the close races.

9th Florida Senate District 84,167 voters.
31,671 Democrats,  32,551 Republicans,  19,945 others

16th Florida Senate District 33,193 voters.
11,430 Democrats,  13,880 Republicans,  7,883 others

18th Florida Senate District 67,642 voters.
27,914 Democrats,  25,717 Republicans,  14,011 others

20th Florida Senate District 60,700 voters.
24,663 Democrats,  23,795 Republicans,  12,242 others

22nd Florida Senate District 54,802 voters. close
23,068 Democrats,  20,152 Republicans,  11,582 others

24th Florida Senate District 24,130 voters.
9,767 Democrats,  8,797 Republicans,  5,566 others

25th Florida Senate District 67,866 voters.
25,871 Democrats,  28,861 Republicans,  13,134 others

36th Florida Senate District 40,194 voters.
13,768 Democrats,  15,714 Republicans,  10,712 others

39th Florida Senate District 53,355 voters.
21,094 Democrats,  19,644 Republicans,  12,617 others

40th Florida Senate District 66,092 voters.
26,088 Democrats,  23,472 Republicans,  16,532 others

More Democrats than Republicans have cast an early in person ballot in 62 out of the 120 races for the Florida House.  27 of the 120 races appear to be close.  Democrats have cast more ballots than Republicans in 14 of those close races. Close Florida House races in the greater southeast Florida neighborhood include

83rd Florida House District 25,719 voters.
10,046 Democrats,  10,718 Republicans,  4,955 others

84th Florida House District 19,387 voters.
8,834 Democrats,  6,844 Republicans,  3,709 others

85th Florida House District 26,621 voters.
10,005 Democrats,  10,661 Republicans,  5,955 others

89th Florida House District 21,988 voters.
8,713 Democrats,  7,829 Republicans,  5,446 others

105th Florida House District 17,974 voters
6,781 Democrats,  6,115 Republicans,  5,078 others

110th Florida House District 12,620 voters.
4,112 Democrats,  5,440 Republicans,  3,068 others

114th Florida House District 24,075 voters.
9,303 Democrats,  9,091 Republicans,  5,681 others

115th Florida House District 24,708 voters.
9,464 Democrats,  9,496 Republicans,  5,748 others

118th Florida House District 19,509 voters.
6,915 Democrats,  7,524 Republicans,  5,070 others

119th Florida House District 20,510 voters.
6,607 Democrats,  7,923 Republicans,  5,980 others

120th Florida House District 19,488 voters.
7,933 Democrats,  7,297 Republicans,  4,258 others

Who Is Ron DeSantis?

Ron DeSantis is, of course, the Republican nominee for Governor of Florida.  He was also, until the day after he was nominated, an administrator of the Tea Party Facebook Group.  Other Tea Party group administrators included Corey Stewart, the notorious white supremacist Republican candidate for US Senate from Virginia and Kelli Ward who was John McCain’s Republican primary opponent two years ago.  All three have been endorsed by Donald Trump at one point or another.

Screen shot of a posting on the Tea Party Facebook page in which Maria Rubino-Decowski acknowledges Virginia Republican US Senate candidate Corey Stewart as a group administrator
Facebook Tea Party group acknowledges Corey Stewart as one of its group administrators

The same day that Ron DeSantis made his famous monkey gaffe on Fox TV, DeSantis, Stewart and Ward’s names disappeared from the administrator list, but as you can see, there is ample evidence of their leadership positions within the group.

Screen shot of Tea Party acknowledgement that Ron DeSantis is in fact a group administrator

It is worth looking at some of the Tea Party postings that happened while Ron DeSantis, Kelli Ward and Corey Stewart were group administrators.  Here are some examples of the group’s thoughts about the late Senator John McCain.  You can click on most of these images and go straight to the place on the Tea Party Group Facebook page where you can find the original post and all the comments that Tea Party members have made on that post.

Screen shot of a post in the Tea Party Facebook group.  The post calls the late Senator John McCain a traitor
Ron DeSantis’ Tea Party Facebook group proposed this tombstone for John McCain

Screen shot of a post to the Tea Party Facebook group on August 26, 2018 at 9:12 PM.  The dead rhinoceros is a reference to a derisive term used by right wing extremists -- Republican In Name Only (RINO).  Applying that term ot John McCain gives silly a whole new meaning
RINO means Republican In Name Only

The Tea Party Facebook has some strong opinions about President Barack Obama and his family

Screen shot of a cartoon posted to the Tea Party Facebook group on July 12, 2017.  The cartoon shows a caricature of President Obama being addressed as "boy"
This is one of the group’s cartoons about Barack Obama

Image calls First Lady Michele Obama a man
And this is the group’s comment on the Obama family

A sign written in English and Arabic.  The sign does not appear to say the same thing in both languages.  The English says "Welcome to Kenya, Birthplace of Barack Obama"
and of course, the group has the fairy tale about President Obama’s birthplace

The Tea Party Facebook group that Ron DeSantis administered has opinions about the kids who survived the shootings at Marjorie Stoneman Douglas High School.

The group had some opinions about the massacre at Marjorie Stoneman Douglas HS

Screen shot of a post to the Tea Party Facebook page on May 18, 2018.  The image shows Parkland shooting survivor David Hogg dressed as Dorothy from The Wizard of Oz.  The Santa Fe road sign is an oblique reference to a right wing conspiracy theory that the Parkland students faked the shooting at their high school
and they have opinions about David Hogg as well

In June of this year, somebody made a crank call to the Broward County Sheriff. They falsely reported that there was an active shooter at David Hogg’s house.  The danger here is that the police arrive at the scene expecting to find an armed bad guy.  Nobody at the house expects police.  It is extremely easy for innocent people to get hurt in such a situation.  The Tea Party group on Facebook postulated that David Hogg called the SWAT team on himself in order to get attention.

Tea Party group opinion of a life threatening false alarm at David Hogg’s house 

Ron DeSantis, the Trump endorsed Republican nominee for Governor of Florida was until just a few days ago, an administrator of the Facebook group that published these posts and a whole lot more.  I think Alan Ehrlich is correct to ask if Republicans know who they nominated.  See Alan’s post  https://www.bluebroward.org/2018/08/30/do-republicans-have-any-idea-who-desantis-is/

District Boundaries

Alan Erlich, Ralph Rickle, Cynthia Bush and her daughter Sophia have been circulating petitions to get a proposed amendment to the Florida constitution on the ballot this November. The amendment would make it easier to keep people who live in the same city grouped into the same legislative district or the same congressional district. People on different sides of the same neighborhood street wouldn’t find their voices diluted by being split into two or more legislative districts. It has turned out ot be one of the easiest petitions to get signed. It’s a pretty good idea.