Lessons from the 2016 Presidential Election

The Democrats won Coral Springs, But Lost the Election

 Lessons to be Learned

The Battle for Early Voting at Northwest Regional Library:
The NW Regional Library on University Drive had the most early voting of all the early voting sites. Most of the voters were from Coral Springs and Margate. According to the Supervisor of Elections web site, 34,508 voted at this site which was over 2,000 more than the closest site. 17,929 registered Democrats, 7,854 Republicans and 8,723 “other” independents voted here.

The Library became a battleground between Republicans and Democrats. The police were called to the Library almost every day and some days up to 4x in a day. From 7 AM to 7 PM for 2 weeks it was a “circus”. On some days there were as many as 5 official observers. The election workers did a fantastic job. Even though it was the most crowded, this site had the shortest wait time for the number of voters.
The Republicans targeted this site. No other site had as many Republicans or as many demonstrations as per emails from observers who went to other sites. Weeks before voting began, the Republicans were in the streets yelling and screaming at cars. Naturally they had their rally at Wings Plus on Sample. Coral Springs has always been a strong area for Republicans and “Right to Life” groups.
After all the yelling and screaming, what were the results? In Broward county, Democrats won 66.68% compared to the Republican 31.18% A glance at the voting locations such as precinct E27, “Cypress Run” showed that the Democrats won 63.34% compared to 33.65% The Democratic vote was actually higher than in Obama’s election. In other precincts the democrats won by even more.

Lesson 1
Republicans demonstrated on street corners such as University and Sample. They waved to cars – THEY DEVELOPED EXCITEMENT AROUND TRUMP. Our action, CONCENTRATED ON GOTV. And we did an excellent job of getting out the vote through phone banks and canvassing. The cooperation between FDP and the Hillary campaign was good. Lesson – YOU HAVE TO DO BOTH – GET OUT THE VOTE AND DEVELOP EXCITEMENT

Lesson 2
BE PREPARED: The Republicans did not have a voter guide-palm card. The first day of voting the lines extended past the legal limit from the polling entrance. One person was able to give each voter that wanted a “Voter Guide” The VOTER GUIDE WAS SO GOOD THAT THE REPUBLICANS COPIED IT. The second and third day they had paper copies and then had a printed version of a palm card. Our “Palm Card – Voters Guide” was much better than previous years, easier for voters and was used at the polls and also for canvasssing. However, THEY HAD LOTS OF SUPPLIES. Yard signs, bumper stickers, huge Trump signs, stickers. We had nothing – I had to take my own yard sign to wave at cars entering Library.
Lesson 3
AT EARLY VOTING LOCATIONS, HAVE OBSERVERS FROM DAY 1 – The best is to have voters complain or the head clerk of the precinct about the tactics of some Republicans – Screaming at voters, loud music, sound systems, vulgar signs and even hired minorities to campaign for $, trying to instigate a fight or threatening me There were also times that I asked Hillary demonstrators to leave. KNOW THE RULES We had a trump poll watcher with a Trump sign on his clipboard and shirt – not allowed. The police were there every day

As Cynthia Bush stated we have to have Get Out the Vote and PROTECT THE VOTE. We have to do better at Early Voting Sites where at least half of the votes in this election were cast. I don’t think that we did enough to protect the vote

Roy Trachtenberg
Democratic Committee Person E27 and
Executive Bd. Member of Coral Springs/Parkland Democratic Club

Join Us At The Pride Center This Saturday

This Saturday, November 5th 2016 The LGBT Alliance will be tabling at the PRIDE CENTER in Wilton Manors from 8am to 2pm

HRC Broward Will be one of our special Guests Along with Congressman  Ted Duetch

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As we Promote Progressive Candidates and Civic Associations and events

Come meet our Local Candidates for office

It gets a huge crowd weather pending  


We will be here every first Saturday till after the November election

Just returned from 2 weeks in S.Carolina-Vietnam Veteran-Ken Howland

A resident of Hollywood since 2001 as a retired snowbird, I have vote here. I summer in upstate N.Y and signed on in June as soon as Bernie declared his candidacy in late May—$100/month—a retired history teacher and Vietnam era medic.

I had real estate size signs made in N.Y.—on top of the car—[VIETNAM VETERAN FOR]—[BERNIE] AND ON DOORS [BERNIE=MANIN STREET]—[HILARY= WALL STREET].

I returned to Fl from Rochester N.Y. by way of Iowa and put up signs in Des Moines after driving around the capital area returning to Hollywood just before Thanksgiving.

I made 2 trips to S. Carolina—returned from the 1st to participate in the Dr.Martin Luther Day Parade in Miami with 10 other Bernie supporter handing out cards.

Then back to S.Carolina visiting Charleston(Press coverage gained there),Columbia, Spartanburg, Rock Hill, Sumter, Florence and Orangeburg—2,000 cards handed out mostly at colleges.

Now I am ready to go to work in the Hollywood-Fort Lauderdale using a similiar game plan.

An Independent Progressive Democrat for Bernie— Ken Howland—315-430-4439

Post-Election Analysis by Phil Busey

Besides being a great volunteer and organizer, Phil Busey is a diligent analyst of election data. Here’s what he sent out to his email list (re-posted by permission)

What happened in last week’s election

Below are major points from my analysis and interpretation of the 11/4/2014 General Election in Broward County as to the Governor’s election.  There were other interesting races on the ballot that I have not covered.  Please be aware of cautionary statements in the full report.  Also, there remains a discrepancy in the reported vote counts between the Florida Division of Elections and the Broward County Supervisor of Elections. The SOE has been contacted but has not responded.

If you received earlier drafts of my full report, it has been updated here and earlier versions should be ignored.  The full report is here:

http://demvic.com/2014/

Not included in the report is some modeling that I performed (which will be continued when full voter histories are available) showing that the best model for voting is that “Independent” (no party affiliation and minor party) voters voted for Charlie Crist 69% of time, voted for minor party candidates 8% of the time, and voted for Republicans 23% of the time. Republicans and Democrats voted for the candidate of their own party almost exclusively, however about 5% of Republicans appeared to have voted for a minor party candidate, based on the least chi-squares model.

  1. In 2014, Democratic nominee for Governor lost to Republican incumbent Rick Scott by 64, 267 votes.
  2. Broward County votes for Charlie Crist were 318,903  a margin of 180,524 over Rick Scott, but not enough to negate large Rick Scott margins across Florida particularly in Lee and Collier Counties.
  3. Broward turnout of “active” voters was 44.47% (all parties), within historical norms since 2002. Broward turnout rose from being second worst in the state in 2010 to sixth worst in 2014.
  4. Broward margin for Charlie Crist was substantially larger than other Gubernatorial elections since 2002.  Going along with increasing Democratic margins in Broward there has been a trend of shrinking margins at the state level for Republican candidates, however that is obscured by various factors such as the incumbency effect.
  5. There was an 17.4% increase or 47,297 more votes (47,257 based on SOE data) in Broward votes for Democrat Charlie Crist compared with Alex Sink in 2010. Of this, 12,822 or 27.1% of the increase was due to three cities, Lauderhill, Miramar, and Hollywood. The largest increases as a ratio of 2010 for incorporated areas were Lauderhill, 45.4% and Dania Beach, 36.9%. Of the 49,363 increased Broward margin (49,367 by SOE data) of Charlie Crist over Rick Scott, compared with Alex Sink over Rick Scott, Lauderhill, Miramar, and Hollywood again explained, in the same order, most of the positive performance, 12,378 votes or 25.1% of the County.
  6. Oakland Park and Wilton Manors, which were ranked in fourth and fifth place, respectively, in increase in Democratic margins, also were ranked in first and second place in return rate of absentee ballots (including absentee ballot requesters who voted early).

Democratically,

Phil

Phil Busey, Area 6 Leader, Broward Democratic Party
Cooper City, Davie, Southwest Ranches, Weston
954-579-3932, philip@busey.org
837 SW 120th Way, Davie, FL  33325

Nan Rich Needs Grassroots (And Money, Too) In Governor’s Race

One of the people who comments regularly on this blog lately harps on this, and an attendee at this week’s Plantation Democratic Club appearance by Nan Rich also raised the issue: how can she possibly win when Charlie Crist is starting out with more name recognition and is attracting more press and more money. Worse, Gov. Rick Scott for all his negatives, is rolling in corporate campaign cash — more than any Democrat is likely to match.

There’s no question that this is a problem, not only for Nan Rich but for Democracy. Yet I hate to see Dems making some kind of realpolitik calculation that Crist is the candidate to support because he has more money. There is also a self-fulfilling prophecy at work here, where money follows money and press follows press.

Nan Rich is a former state legislator, who most recently served as Minority Leader in the Senate — which means she is used to working against the odds. She readily agreed that she can’t win on the strength of a grassroots campaign alone — she needs supporters to donate to her campaign as well. She needs to capture the imagination and attention of enough supporters who are willing to write checks as well as volunteer that she narrows the money gap and can start to gain ground.

But she also says that as she travels around the state, she hears a lot of people talking about the way Rick Scott got into office in the first place:

“They say, He bought it — and you know what, we’re not going to let anyone buy it again. And that goes for Charlie Crist, too.” – Nan Rich

I don’t want to beat up on Crist too much — if he is the nominee, of course I will support him over Rick Scott. But my fear is that he will win a Democratic primary only to fade fast in the general election, based on all the contradictions in his past. As Nan told the Plantation Democrats, one of the reasons we need a Democratic governor is to restore or maintain balance on the State Supreme Court — and one of the reasons we have to be worried is because of the right wing justices Crist appointed during his time in office. Some of the Democratic legislators who served with Crist liked him because he could be so much more reasonable and willing to bend than his predecessor, Jeb Bush. But even when he did the right thing, it was always hard to know whether he did it for the right reason or out of pure political calculation. The trouble is, he was equally willing to bend to pressure from the right when that was to his political advantage.

On the other hand, there were many times when Crist did do the right thing for whatever reason, leaving us wondering why he stuck with the Republican party for so long. I’d like to hope that, if he does become our nominee, we will see him behave more consistently and convince us of his ability to do the right thing for the right reason.

Yet why not choose a candidate who has been standing up for Democratic principles all along? Nan Rich was often in the position of trying to stop bad legislation brought forth under both the Crist and Scott administrations to privatize prisons and schools or limit a woman’s reproductive rights. With a veto pen in her hand, she could do that even more effectively — and maybe even start to push the state forward.

What impresses me most about Nan Rich is how hard she is working at this campaign. Crist can afford to coast along with a sense of entitlement. Nan knows she has to fight for the nomination. She has been crisscrossing the state, spending as much time in rural areas of the state that rarely see a Democratic candidate as she is in Broward. Her theory is that she will need supporters in those places later in the game, when she really does have to concentrate her energies in Democratic strongholds like Broward. She also needs people in all those places who will write into the local paper and make some noise when articles talk about a race between Crist and Scott, forgetting to even mention her.

“Grassroots is not the only thing that’s important, but I think it’s more important than most people realize at this stage,” she said.

Find out more at www.nanrich2014.com

Editor’s note: This blog is a community resource. Members with other opinions are equally welcome to post (within our editorial guidelines).

Demand Respect for Nan Rich for Governor vs. Charlie Crist

With Charlie Crist about to end the worst-kept secret in Florida politics and officially announce he’s running for governor as a Democrat, it’s important for the supporters of former State Senator Nan Rich to speak out. She has been running hard for months without getting much respect from either the party brass or the media. Re: the media, see Joanne Sterner’s plea below.

If you believe as I do that hard work and principled leadership are the most important thing, Nan Rich deserves your support. She is an articulate advocate for Democratic principles and brings none of the baggage that Crist would related to his frequently-changing stands on every issue.

Don’t get me wrong, BlueBroward is available as a promotional platform to Crist and his supporters, despite my editorializing (see site policy). If Crist is the ultimate nominee, I won’t hesitate to vote for him over Rick Scott. Crist undoubtedly wins on name recognition, but I resent the assumption that the nomination is his for the taking because he was willing to change parties. Choosing Nan Rich will take more courage, and she needs all who support her to speak up now. Learn more at www.nanrich2014.com.

From: Joanne Sterner [mailto:joanne.sterner@gmail.com]
Sent: Saturday, November 02, 2013 3:07 PM
To: Joanne Sterner
Subject: re: Chris Matthews interview with Charlie Crist Monday night

PLEASE PASS THIS ON

Chris Matthews of MSNBC has an e-mail address of:
hardball@msnbc.com

Chris Matthews announced on Friday he is excited to have an interview with Charlie Crist Monday night after he announces..  I don’t believe he has ever reached out to Nan Rich who has been running and the only real Democrat in the race.  We need to let him know were’re not happy about this.

Send this email to all Nan’s Fans to write MSNBC about interviewing Nan Rich.

Thanks,

Joanne

For background, video from a couple of months ago of Nan Rich discussing how she compares with Crist.

Free Tools for Democratic Candidates, Campaigns

BlueBroward was created as a free resource for Democratic candidates and campaigns, and I wish more people would take advantage of them.

In particular, I encourage campaigns to take advantage of:

  • Campaign listings – create a page on BlueBroward.org that describes your campaign and provides links to other resources about your campaign, such as your own website or a donation page. Even if you have a great website of your own, this gives you another link pointing to it, and another way of sending people to it. If you’re running a low-budget campaign and don’t have your own campaign website, this is a way to establish a basic web presence.
  • Event listings – post local campaign events to BlueBroward. You may be posting them to your own website and to Facebook, but this is another way of drawing a crowd.
  • Blog – The blog is set up so any BlueBroward.org member can create posts. Post your positions here. Post links to newspaper op-eds you’ve published or that mention your campaign. Encourage supporters to post messages of endorsement. I have editorial control over the blog and the calendar but have always exercised it with a very light touch (see: editorial policies).

BlueBroward runs on a version of WordPress, a popular blogging tool, with my own add-ons for managing events and campaign listings. This means that the same tools for formatting posts and uploading images (or documents such as PDFs) are available across the blog editor, event editor, and campaign editor — once you get the hang of them, you can apply the same techniques to all. The key differences are that you need to set an event date and time for events, and specify the election date and seat you’re running for in the form fields of a campaign listing, whereas neither would apply to a blog post.

If you run into technical issues while posting to the site, I’m available to help: david@bluebroward.org

One dog and two kids

Remember when Rick Scott latched onto a dog as a campaign prop in 2010, in an effort to prove his humanity?

And, how we laughed when Rick Scott so quickly dumped the dog after the election?

Reagan, the now famous dog that once belonged to Gov. Rick Scott, was banished from the Governor’s Mansion after biting an employee who moved his water bowl.

“The governor and first lady love dogs, and they had to make a hard decision when it was clear that Reagan was very anxious around lots of different people,” Scott spokeswoman Melissa Sellers said.

The dog bite occurred while the governor was in Orlando on Jan. 7, 2011, just three days after Scott took office, according to an incident report released by Scott’s office late last week. Mansion grounds employee Jennifer Kinsey was arranging flowers in the mansion when Reagan bit her on the right hand, according to the incident report made by her supervisor for the Department of Management Services. The report noted that the injury was not serious and required no medical treatment.

Scott introduced the yellow Labrador to Facebook readers on Sept. 7, 2010, shortly after he won the Republican nomination and before his election in November 2010. Facebook friends chose the name Reagan from a list of three choices suggested by the campaign and applauded the candidate’s decision to adopt a rescue dog.

After the bite report, Sellers said, Scott flew Reagan back to Naples on his private jet and returned the dog to All Pets Grooming and Boarding, a Collier County groomer.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/gubernatorial/gov-rick-scotts-former-dog-reagan-bit-employee-report-says/1271611

Does it make you wonder about Charlie Crist’s wife’s kids, the ones he latched onto before his senate race in 2010, as proof of something or other?

The ex-husband of former Florida first lady Carole Crist has been granted full custody of their two daughters, after alleging that she abandoned them and hasn’t returned messages in nearly two years.

“She’s completely abandoned them,” Todd Rome said of his former wife of 14 years in a brief telephone interview Friday.

He said Mrs. Crist, married for four years to former Gov. Charlie Crist, has not seen or spoken to her 14- and 16-year-old daughters since June 8, 2011, and that even simple tasks like getting her signature on documents have become a challenge.

Mrs. Crist and ex-husband Rome had joint custody until Feb. 1 when a family court judge in New York granted him temporary full custody. Rome said he may seek full custody permanently. . . .

Reached by phone as he was driving with his daughters, Rome said he has no explanation for why Mrs. Crist, 43, cut off contact with his daughters. He then passed the phone to his wife of four-plus years, Vanessa Rome.

“Anything that needs a co-parent signature becomes a complete ordeal, because she doesn’t answer,” Mrs. Rome said of Mrs. Crist. Mrs. Crist used to visit her daughters every other weekend in New York City.

Mrs. Rome said Mrs. Crist had no patience for the girls any time they complained about something.

“She doesn’t like to discuss anything or be called out, so if they say anything that rocks the boat she’ll say, ‘Okay, bye. I have to go,’ and hang up.”

The former governor has in the past spoken warmly of his stepdaughters — he called them “our children” in 2009 — but Mrs. Rome said “he wanted no part of them.” When in Florida during 2010, the girls constantly found themselves bored at political fundraising events with no one to talk to. Mr. Crist, she said, also had no tolerance for any hint of unpleasant teen behavior.

“He would say, ‘I’m not coming to dinner with you with that attitude,’ ” she said. “Often they were left alone in the hotel room to order room service.”

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/gubernatorial/charlie-crists-wife-loses-custody-of-two-teenage-daughters/1275394

Which do you think plays worse with the public – – returning a dog you no longer have any use for?  Or, returning two kids?

Charlie Crist forgets again

Charlie Crist forgot what everyone else remembered:

Former Gov. Charlie Crist says he didn’t know an ex-GOP chair was taking a share of donations, but a lobbyist says Crist told him he was OK with the arrangement.
In a deposition released Thursday, Brian Ballard said Crist told him then-party chairman Jim Greer and executive director Delmar Johnson would take over state GOP fundraising and be compensated for taking on the extra role.
In his deposition, Crist said he knew Johnson was taking on fundraising responsibilities, but not Greer. Crist said the party chairman is always expected to raise money without receiving extra compensation.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/02/07/3222483/crist-i-didnt-know-about-greer.html#storylink=cpy

Of course, we’ll never know the truth:

Former Republican Party of Florida chairman Jim Greer pleaded guilty to theft and money laundering charges Monday just before jury selection in his criminal trial was to begin.
Greer pleaded guilty to four counts of theft and a single count of money laundering for funneling money from the Republican Party of Florida to a company he set up with his right-hand man. He could be sentenced to a minimum of 3 1/2 years and a maximum of 35 years in prison at his March 27 sentencing.
The plea deal avoids would could have been an embarrassing trial for the state GOP. Some of Florida’s most powerful politicians were scheduled as witnesses, including former Gov. Charlie Crist, former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux, former Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum and several state House and state Senate leaders.
“There were a number of people who did not want this trial to go forward and the trial isn’t going forward,” said Damon Chase, Greer’s attorney. “Once again, Jim Greer is falling on his sword for a lot of other folks.”

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/02/11/3228113/headaches-for-fla-gop-ahead-in.html#storylink=cpy

But, we do remember the relationship between Crist and corrupt felon Jim Greer:

Topics that were covered in pretrial depositions included allegations of prostitutes at a state GOP fundraiser in the Bahamas, lavish spending on fancy restaurants and luxury hotels by state party leaders, the drinking habits of Crist and party leaders stabbing each other in the back.
Greer, 50, was vice mayor of the small central Florida town of Oviedo when Crist surprisingly picked him to be the state party chairman after he led local efforts to help Crist get elected governor in 2006.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/02/11/3228113/headaches-for-fla-gop-ahead-in.html#storylink=cpy

I guess Crist will now forget he ever knew Jim Greer. 

Just like he now forgets his opposition to Obamacare.

http://www.bluebroward.org/2012/12/10/charlie-crist-and-obamacare-in-case-youre-wondering/

Just like he now forgets his role in enshrining marriage discrimination in the state constitution.

http://www.bluebroward.org/2012/12/17/charlie-crist-and-marriage-equality/

Will Florida Democrats forget?