Making Florida a Blue State, One Election at a Time
Thursday, January 17, 2019 6:30pm-8pm Mod Sixties Wine: 1828 E Sunrise Blvd, Ft Lauderdale, FL
Stop Human Trafficking in South Florida
We should have seen this coming! For over three years, volunteers all across the State of Florida worked very hard, first to collect enough petitions to put the Rights Restoration Amendment on the ballot, and then campaigned for its passage. On November 6, 2018, the voters of Florida overwhelmingly approved Amendment 4 to restore the right to vote to most of the 1.4 million Floridians with prior felony convictions. Starting on January 8, 2019, when this law goes into effect, any former felon (other than those convicted of murder or felony sexual offense) who has completed all of the terms of their sentence should be able to register to vote. The language of Amendment 4 was designed to be self-executing,and no legislative or executive action should be necessary for its implementation.
But now, Governor-Elect Ron DeSantis says that Amendment 4 (which he opposed) should not go into effect until the Florida Legislature passes “implementing language” in a bill which he would then sign! Since the next legislative session does not start until March, this would delay the restoration of voting rights to felons for months.
On December 13, 2018, a letter was sent to Florida Secretary of State Ken Detzner on behalf of the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition, the ACLU of Florida, the League of Women Voters of Florida, and Latino Justice. The letter makes it very clear that the position of these civil and voting rights organizations is that Amendment 4 is self-executing and goes into effect on January 8, 2019. (A PDF copy of the letter is attached.) In the event that DeSantis and other officials do not back down, the ACLU of Florida and the other organizations should sue to force them to stop stalling and automatically restore the right to vote!
If you would like to have your voice heard on this issue, you can contact the following individuals and tell them to stop stalling and to carry out the will of the people!
Secretary of State Ken Detzner: 850-245-6500 or SecretaryofState@DOS.MyFlorida.com
Governor-Elect Ron DeSantis: 904-827-1101 or info@rondesantis.com
I am including a copy below of the notice I have prepared for Broward County residents who have felony convictions. (Also attached as a PDF.) Please share this on Facebook and with every person on your email or other lists!
With thanks for your help and Happy Holidays!
Alan
SECOND CHANCES FOR FELONS
This notice is for any and all Broward County residents who have a felony conviction, other than murder or felony sexual offense, and who have completed all of the terms of their sentence.
On November 6, 2018, the voters of Florida approved Amendment 4. The voting rights restoration amendment restores the right to register to vote to any former felon who has completed all of the terms of their sentence, other than those convicted of murder or a felony sexual offense.
This restoration of voting rights goes into effect on January 8, 2019. If you live in Broward County, have a felony conviction in your past, but have completed all of the terms of your sentence, and would like to register to vote, you can contact any local political party, the Supervisor of Elections Office, the League of Women Voters, or the American Civil Liberties Association.
You can also contact Alan Ehrlich, a Broward County attorney who works with the 2nd Chances Campaign, by sending an email to pan1@comcast.net. Please include your telephone number in the message you send, and he will contact you to let you know where and when you can register to vote.
 |
Virus-free. www.avast.com |
Don’t forget about the Plantation Democratic Club’s Holiday Party! It’s this Thursday, not Tuesday at 7 PM at the Deicke Auditorium. And I’ll be making my punch!
Hope to see you there!
Alan
|
|
Virus-free. www.avast.com |
So, both Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson lost their races by the smallest of margins in a state with over 8 million votes!
For the past three years, during the time I worked so hard to get the Rights Restoration Amendment on the ballot and then to get it approved, I suggested that with over 1.4 million Floridians with felony convictions, the restoration of voting rights could go a long way towards making Florida a reliably blue state.
And so today, in an article in Vox, the writer agrees with my suggestion, saying that if people with felony convictions had been able to vote, Bill Nelson would likely have beaten Rick Scott. He is less sure that Andrew Gillum would have won, but I think he would have as well. Check out this article and then let’s talk about what we can do.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/19/18102579/florida-senate-midterm-election-results-felons-nelson-scott
Amendment 4 restores voting rights to all former felons who have completed all the terms of their sentence, except for those convicted of murder or sexual felony offenses. It is self-executing, meaning that no further action is necessary for eligible felons to register to vote. Starting on January 8, 2019, any eligible former felon can register to vote by checking the box in Question # 2 on the Florida Voter Registration Application and affirming that their right to vote has been restored.
Instead of just waiting for ex-felons to come across a voter registration event by chance, I would like to try to reach out and let them know where and when they can go to register to vote starting in mid January.
So if you know anyone in Broward County who would be eligible to vote under this constitutional amendment, please give them my email address (pan1@comcast.net), and ask them to message me with their name and telephone number. We will then contact them about where and when to register to vote.
Thank you for helping to pass Amendment 4!
Alan Ehrlich
|
Virus-free. www.avast.com |
|
Virus-free. www.avast.com |
|
Virus-free. www.avast.com |
My wife and I requested vote by mail ballots — then, just to be sure, delivered them in person to an early voting location rather than trusting the mail. We should be able to confirm that they have been counted on the “status of my vote” screen of the Supervisor of Elections office website (if you haven’t checked, do it now).
We entrusted our ballots to SOE staff on Oct. 28., but as of today they still show as “received” — not tabulated, and not rejected.
(Update: On Friday, the status finally changed to tabulated.)
Yes, we were careful to sign and date the envelope, as required.
For comparison, you can see the tabulated line on my vote for the primary election.
Is it possible this is a website glitch and has nothing to do whether my vote is actually recorded? Sure, anything is possible, but the whole point of this website feature is to provide transparency and confidence in the election system.
After several days of obsessively checking this page of the website, Beth Anne went to the SOE office in Lauderdale in person. That’s after several phone calls weren’t returned. After taking her license, they said her vote had indeed been counted but that it “takes a couple of days” for that information to be reflected on the website.
A couple of days? We turned in our ballots on Oct. 28. Their system shows them as received on Oct. 30 — 9 days ago.
Yes, I know there are lots of other issues with provisional ballots and college students who requested but never received a vote by mail ballot. But we got our ballots, filled them out carefully, then hand delivered them — and still don’t know whether to trust that they were really counted.
Phone bankers and canvassers are needed tomorrow (Thursday) starting at 8 AM. I have been told that we only have until 5 PM tomorrow to collect affidavits. The addresses of the offices where you are needed are shown below.
See the following message from Cynthia Busch:
“We must do every thing in our power to reach all these voters and guarantee that their votes are counted. We need phone bankers and canvassers all day tomorrow starting at 8AM at the three Democratic Coordinated offices in Broward—Miramar (2881 Corporate Way), Plantation (5239 W. Broward Blvd.), and Ft. Lauderdale (1033 Sistrunk Blvd., Suite 202). Bring a laptop/tablet and a cellphone if you’ll be making calls, and don’t forget: the work we do in the next twelve hours can change the course of this state—and the entire country—for years to come.”
If you are available, please come to one of these offices to help.
Alan
And here in Florida, in what was otherwise a very frustrating night, Amendment 4 passed, which will, restore the right to vote to more than 1.4 million Floridians with felony convictions. I worked very hard to make this happen, so I am obviously encouraged by this victory.
Now let’s consider what has happened over the past 20 years in each of our elections, both national and statewide: In Florida, Democratic candidates have been losing by margins which have been incredibly small, usually by less than 100,000 votes.
This same sad story seems to have played out yesterday:
In the Florida Senate race, Rick Scott is (at this point) ahead of Bill Nelson by only 34,500 votes!
And in the Florida Gubernatorial race, Ron DeSantis is (at this point) ahead of Andrew Gillum by only 50,900 votes!
What can we do to change the way these elections play out? One thing that we can now do seems obvious to me.
With the passage of Amendment 4, we can make it a priority in Florida to register each and every man and woman with a prior felony convection so that they will be eligible to vote in all future elections in our state. Think about the numbers. If only 1.2 million, or only 1.1 million, or only 1 million of these now eligible voters register, I believe that the number of Democratic voters in Florida will increase dramatically. If 1 million register and most register as Democrats, it will only take a small percentage to make Florida a reliably blue state. 30% would mean 300,000 more Democratic votes! 20% would mean 200,000 more Democratic votes! And even 10% would mean 100,000 more Democratic votes!
So, I respectfully suggest that the Broward Democratic Party and the Florida Democratic Party make the registration of our 1.4 million neighbors with felony convictions and immediate priority. Let’s change the outcome going forward!
So, you see, I did find something to be encouraged by in yesterday’s election results in Florida.
Alan
As of sunrise Monday morning, 5.1 million Floridians — 38.7% of all elegible Florida voters — had cast a ballot in these midterm elections. I wrote a small computer program to match each voter who cast a ballot with the races that voter could vote in. The results suggest that we Democrats will flip three and possibly five Congressional seats blue and take razor thin control of the Florida Senate and the Florida House. Here are the turnout numbers as of Monday morning.
| Rep | Dem | other | No Party | Total | |
| Voted Vote-by-Mail | 1,001,727 | 938,798 | 13,898 | 446,389 | 2,400,812 |
| Voted early in person | 1,047,454 | 1,135,138 | 19,569 | 504,865 | 2,709,268 |
| Total Florida ballots cast (as of sunrise Sunday morning) | 2,049,181 | 2,073,936 | 35,709 | 951,254 | 5,110,080 |
| Unreturned Vote-by-Mail | 350,599 | 462,082 | 7,641 | 267,181 | 1,087,503 |
These numbers come from https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
43.96% of all eligible Republican voters have already voted.
42.17% of all eligible Democratic voters have already voted.
27% of all eligible independent and third party voters have already voted.
If we match the voter registration information of the people who have voted so far with the various Florida races, we get an interesting picture of the midterms. There are limits to what this will tell you.
That having been said, if the election had ended Sunday night and only in person early voting counted, three Congressional seats, the 15th, the 26th and the 27th, would have flipped to a Democrat. There would be 22 Democrats (out of 40 State Senators) in Tallahassee and there would be 62 Democrats (out of 120 representatives) in the lower house of the Florida legislature. If we can get turnout on election day itself, there could be a pretty spectacular turn around in the third biggest state in the Union.
There are a lot of very close races throughout Florida. Some might surprise you. Also, notice the importance of third party and independent voters in each race.
The in person early voting numbers suggest that the 3rd, the 7th, the 13th, the 15th, the 18th, the 26th and the 27th Congressional Districts all appear close.
3rd Congressional District 105,155 voters. (R +9)
42,284 Democrats, 47,585 Republicans, 15,592 others
7th Congressional District 122,239 voters. (Cook rated even)
50,885 Democrats, 43,003 Republicans, 28,351 others
13th Congressional District 40,065 voters. (D +2)
18,994 Democrats, 12,266 Republicans, 8,805 others
15th Congressional District 85,583 voters. (R +6) possible Dem flip
35,864 Democrats, 33,296 Republicans, 16,423 others
18th Congressional District 105,850 voters. (R +5) possible Dem flip
40,112 Democrats, 44,004 Republicans, 21,734 others
26th Congressional District 85,781 voters. (D +6) probable Dem flip
35,235 Democrats, 29,304 Republicans, 21,242 others
27th Congressional District 96,426 voters. (D +5) probable Dem flip
39,364 Democrats, 32,689 Republicans, 24,373 others
More Democrats than Republicans have cast a ballot in 22 Florida Senate races. Ten of those races appear close close. More Democrats than Republicans have cast ballots in 6 of the close races.
9th Florida Senate District 84,167 voters.
31,671 Democrats, 32,551 Republicans, 19,945 others
16th Florida Senate District 33,193 voters.
11,430 Democrats, 13,880 Republicans, 7,883 others
18th Florida Senate District 67,642 voters.
27,914 Democrats, 25,717 Republicans, 14,011 others
20th Florida Senate District 60,700 voters.
24,663 Democrats, 23,795 Republicans, 12,242 others
22nd Florida Senate District 54,802 voters. close
23,068 Democrats, 20,152 Republicans, 11,582 others
24th Florida Senate District 24,130 voters.
9,767 Democrats, 8,797 Republicans, 5,566 others
25th Florida Senate District 67,866 voters.
25,871 Democrats, 28,861 Republicans, 13,134 others
36th Florida Senate District 40,194 voters.
13,768 Democrats, 15,714 Republicans, 10,712 others
39th Florida Senate District 53,355 voters.
21,094 Democrats, 19,644 Republicans, 12,617 others
40th Florida Senate District 66,092 voters.
26,088 Democrats, 23,472 Republicans, 16,532 others
More Democrats than Republicans have cast an early in person ballot in 62 out of the 120 races for the Florida House. 27 of the 120 races appear to be close. Democrats have cast more ballots than Republicans in 14 of those close races. Close Florida House races in the greater southeast Florida neighborhood include
83rd Florida House District 25,719 voters.
10,046 Democrats, 10,718 Republicans, 4,955 others
84th Florida House District 19,387 voters.
8,834 Democrats, 6,844 Republicans, 3,709 others
85th Florida House District 26,621 voters.
10,005 Democrats, 10,661 Republicans, 5,955 others
89th Florida House District 21,988 voters.
8,713 Democrats, 7,829 Republicans, 5,446 others
105th Florida House District 17,974 voters
6,781 Democrats, 6,115 Republicans, 5,078 others
110th Florida House District 12,620 voters.
4,112 Democrats, 5,440 Republicans, 3,068 others
114th Florida House District 24,075 voters.
9,303 Democrats, 9,091 Republicans, 5,681 others
115th Florida House District 24,708 voters.
9,464 Democrats, 9,496 Republicans, 5,748 others
118th Florida House District 19,509 voters.
6,915 Democrats, 7,524 Republicans, 5,070 others
119th Florida House District 20,510 voters.
6,607 Democrats, 7,923 Republicans, 5,980 others
120th Florida House District 19,488 voters.
7,933 Democrats, 7,297 Republicans, 4,258 others
2018-ACLU-Letter-to-Ken-Detzner.pdf
