Early Voting So Far

As of sunrise Monday morning, 5.1 million Floridians — 38.7% of all elegible Florida voters — had cast a ballot in these midterm elections.  I wrote a small computer program to match each voter who cast a ballot with the races that voter could vote in.  The results suggest that we Democrats will flip three and possibly five Congressional seats blue and take razor thin control of the Florida Senate and the Florida House.  Here are the turnout numbers as of Monday morning.  

RepDemotherNo PartyTotal
Voted Vote-by-Mail1,001,727938,79813,898446,3892,400,812
Voted early in person1,047,4541,135,13819,569504,8652,709,268
Total Florida ballots cast
(as of sunrise
Sunday morning)
Unreturned Vote-by-Mail350,599462,0827,641267,1811,087,503

These numbers come from https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

43.96% of all eligible Republican voters have already voted.
42.17% of all eligible Democratic voters have already voted.
27% of all eligible independent and third party voters have already voted.

If we match the voter registration information of the people who have voted so far with the various Florida races, we get an interesting picture of the midterms.  There are limits to what this will tell you. 

  • These numbers only include in person early votes. I do not have the vote by mail data.
  • We have no way to know how anybody actually voted. We just know that a voter who cast a ballot was eligible to vote in certain races and registered as a Democrat or a Republican or something else.
  • We have no way to know if a voter actually voted for every race on his or her ballot. If somebody voted for governor, but not senator, we cannot detect that.
  • We have no clue about how independents might have voted.
  • These numbers do not predict how people who vote on Election Day will vote.

That having been said, if the election had ended Sunday night and only in person early voting counted, three Congressional seats, the 15th, the 26th and the 27th, would have flipped to a Democrat. There would be 22 Democrats (out of 40 State Senators) in Tallahassee and there would be 62 Democrats (out of 120 representatives) in the lower house of the Florida legislature. If we can get turnout on election day itself, there could be a pretty spectacular turn around in the third biggest state in the Union.

There are a lot of very close races throughout Florida.  Some might surprise you.  Also, notice the importance of third party and independent voters in each race.

The in person early voting numbers suggest that the 3rd, the 7th, the 13th, the 15th, the 18th, the 26th and the 27th Congressional Districts all appear close.

3rd Congressional District 105,155 voters. (R +9)
42,284 Democrats,  47,585 Republicans,  15,592 others

7th Congressional District 122,239 voters. (Cook rated even)
50,885 Democrats,  43,003 Republicans,  28,351 others

13th Congressional District 40,065 voters. (D +2) 
18,994 Democrats,  12,266 Republicans,  8,805 others

15th Congressional District 85,583 voters. (R +6) possible Dem flip
35,864 Democrats,  33,296 Republicans,  16,423 others

18th Congressional District 105,850 voters. (R +5) possible Dem flip
40,112 Democrats, 44,004 Republicans, 21,734 others

26th Congressional District 85,781 voters. (D +6) probable Dem flip
35,235 Democrats, 29,304 Republicans, 21,242 others

27th Congressional District 96,426 voters. (D +5) probable Dem flip
39,364 Democrats, 32,689 Republicans, 24,373 others

More Democrats than Republicans have cast a ballot in 22 Florida Senate races.  Ten of those races appear close close.  More Democrats than Republicans have cast ballots in 6 of the close races.

9th Florida Senate District 84,167 voters.
31,671 Democrats,  32,551 Republicans,  19,945 others

16th Florida Senate District 33,193 voters.
11,430 Democrats,  13,880 Republicans,  7,883 others

18th Florida Senate District 67,642 voters.
27,914 Democrats,  25,717 Republicans,  14,011 others

20th Florida Senate District 60,700 voters.
24,663 Democrats,  23,795 Republicans,  12,242 others

22nd Florida Senate District 54,802 voters. close
23,068 Democrats,  20,152 Republicans,  11,582 others

24th Florida Senate District 24,130 voters.
9,767 Democrats,  8,797 Republicans,  5,566 others

25th Florida Senate District 67,866 voters.
25,871 Democrats,  28,861 Republicans,  13,134 others

36th Florida Senate District 40,194 voters.
13,768 Democrats,  15,714 Republicans,  10,712 others

39th Florida Senate District 53,355 voters.
21,094 Democrats,  19,644 Republicans,  12,617 others

40th Florida Senate District 66,092 voters.
26,088 Democrats,  23,472 Republicans,  16,532 others

More Democrats than Republicans have cast an early in person ballot in 62 out of the 120 races for the Florida House.  27 of the 120 races appear to be close.  Democrats have cast more ballots than Republicans in 14 of those close races. Close Florida House races in the greater southeast Florida neighborhood include

83rd Florida House District 25,719 voters.
10,046 Democrats,  10,718 Republicans,  4,955 others

84th Florida House District 19,387 voters.
8,834 Democrats,  6,844 Republicans,  3,709 others

85th Florida House District 26,621 voters.
10,005 Democrats,  10,661 Republicans,  5,955 others

89th Florida House District 21,988 voters.
8,713 Democrats,  7,829 Republicans,  5,446 others

105th Florida House District 17,974 voters
6,781 Democrats,  6,115 Republicans,  5,078 others

110th Florida House District 12,620 voters.
4,112 Democrats,  5,440 Republicans,  3,068 others

114th Florida House District 24,075 voters.
9,303 Democrats,  9,091 Republicans,  5,681 others

115th Florida House District 24,708 voters.
9,464 Democrats,  9,496 Republicans,  5,748 others

118th Florida House District 19,509 voters.
6,915 Democrats,  7,524 Republicans,  5,070 others

119th Florida House District 20,510 voters.
6,607 Democrats,  7,923 Republicans,  5,980 others

120th Florida House District 19,488 voters.
7,933 Democrats,  7,297 Republicans,  4,258 others